I had better introduce myself
seeing as I want you to take what I say seriously. Or at least credit me with
knowing what I am talking about. Even if my success at finding winners is no
better than your average punter. The trick with punting is to capitalise when
you do. Having a fondness for outsiders, or at least the less fancied beasts, I
find my best wins come on the tote.
You could say I have a bias. I
worked for them for 35 years. Man and boy. For most of that time I was heavily
involved in the statistical side with a strong bent on pool integrity. By the
time I retired I reckoned I knew tote pools and what made them tick as well as
anyone. Here is just a few of the things I learnt, more will follow over the
next few weeks.
Tote win odds on small fields tend to be poor. Pretty obvious
really. Tote takeout is fixed, equating roughly to a book of 120. The bookies
overround varies and in small fields at competitive meetings can be as low as
110 or even less. Add in the fact that there is little spread on the tote on
small fields outsiders winning often throw up cramped odds. Many is the time
that the 25/1 or 50/1 rag in a six runner race has paid considerably less on
the tote. If you bet against the crowd you need caution on the tote on small
fields.
Unfancied trainers/jockeys reap large tote rewards on big handicaps. Another
pretty obvious one I suppose but, less obvious, is the fact that this is
generally enhanced even more if your fancy has a high racecard number. All
things being equal, number 25 of 30 on the tote will give a better return than
number 2 or 3.
Place Pools Generally best avoided for each way purposes but can be
pretty useful for place only bettors. I generally avoid them, particularly as
in big handicaps they never pay out on more than four placed horses.
Exacta I will expand on this, my favourite tote pool, another time
but suffice here to say that in general you should always do this bet on the
tote. I accept that the first two in the betting in a six runner race will not
be particularly competitive when compared to the CSF but at big prices on big
fields there is no competition. You only need to get it right once to reap high
rewards. And I am not talking about small percentages here. I am talking
differences of hundreds. Just look at a few big race results and you will see
what I mean. CSF’s of £200 against tote exactas of up to a £1000.
Trifecta Pool size is vital
here as there is not much point in getting the first three at big prices if
there is not much to share out. A super bet if selected correctly but fraught
with dangers for the uninitiated. Watch this space for dramatic examples.
I think that is enough for now. I
will expand on the above in my next post and give you a few up to date
examples.
